G. Holloway and S. Ehui
International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI)
P.O. Box 30709, Nairobi, Kenya
Samuel E. Benin (Editor)
Mohamed M. Ahmed
Berhanu Gebremedhin
Steven J. Staal
SePR Working Papers contain results of research done by ILRI scientists, consultants and collaborators. The Working Papers are not subjected to full refereeing and are disseminated to motivate discussion and comment. It is expected that most of the Working Papers will be published in some other form. The author(s) alone is (are) responsible for the contents.
Garth Holloway, Livestock Policy Analysis Programme, International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), P.O. Box 5689, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, and University of Reading, UK
Simeon Ehui, Livestock Policy Analysis Programme, ILRI, P.O. Box 5689, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
© 2002 ILRI (International Livestock Research Institute)
All rights reserved. Parts of this publication may be reproduced for
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acknowledgment of ILRI as holder of copyright.
ISBN 92–9146–131–8
Correct citation: Holloway G. and Ehui S. 2002. Expanding market participation among smallholder livestock producers: A collection of studies employing Gibbs sampling and data from the Ethiopian highlands, 1998–2001. Socio-economics and Policy Research Working Paper 48. ILRI (International Livestock Research Institute), Nairobi, Kenya. 85 pp.
2 Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and the Gibbs sampler
2.1 Background
2.2 Objectives
2.3 Bayes’ rule, conditioning and the Gibbs sampler
2.4 Application to normal means
2.5 Demonstrations
2.6 Overview
3 Introduction to the Nicholson data
3.1 Background
3.2 Transactions costs, co-operatives and milk market development
3.3 Co-operatives as catalysts
3.4 Experience in Ethiopia
3.5 Survey design
3.6 Data collection procedures
4 Probit analysis of the participation decision
4.1 Motivation
4.2 Statistical implementation
4.3 Specification and estimation
4.4 Estimating distance to market
4.5 Regression results
4.6 Distance to market estimates
4.7 Conclusions
5 Tobit estimation of milk sales decisions
5.1 Conceptual model
5.2 The Tobit algorithm
5.3 Results
5.4 Conclusions
6 Simultaneous estimation of production and selling decisions
6.1 Conceptual framework
6.2 Two-equation Tobit model
6.3 Estimation
6.4 Locating key regressors
6.5 Results
6.6 Distance to market estimates
6.7 Conclusions
7.1 Motivation
7.2 Dairy innovations in the Ethiopian highlands
7.3 A single-equation approach to the count data
7.4 Simultaneous adoption, production and sales decisions
7.5 Computing distances to market
7.6 Conclusions
8 Estimation when fixed costs cannot be ignored
8.1 Motivation
8.2 Theory
8.3 Statistical model
8.4 Results
8.5 Conclusions
9 A double hurdle model of market participation
9.1 Motivation
9.2 Market participation as an adoption decision
9.3 A standard double hurdle model of the supply decision
9.4 Estimation
9.5 The complicating presence of fixed costs
9.6 Results
9.7 Conclusions